Office continuity riskEXPERIMENTAL SIGNAL
16/100Stable
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DEINDIVIDUAL OFFICE RECORD
Friedrich Merz
Bundeskanzler
A source-linked view of the mandate, approved media evidence and the experimental continuity signal for this officeholder.
In office since 6 May 2025Official source ↗
CURRENT SIGNAL
Pressure, with
its limits visible.
This is an experimental analysis of approved media evidence. It is neither a forecast nor a measure of public opinion.
Period: 26 Jun 2026 — 24 Sept 2026Last updated: 24 Sept 2026, 00:35Method: office-continuity-risk-v9
LAST 30 CALCULATIONS≤25 stable · 25–75 watch · >75 high
26 Aug
27 Aug
28 Aug
29 Aug
30 Aug
31 Aug
01 Sept
02 Sept
03 Sept
04 Sept
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06 Sept
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12 Sept
13 Sept
14 Sept
15 Sept
16 Sept
17 Sept
18 Sept
19 Sept
20 Sept
21 Sept
22 Sept
23 Sept
24 Sept
AGGREGATE EVIDENCE
What supports
the signal.
Only aggregate, reviewed indicators are public. Individual headlines and editorial assessments remain private to reduce attribution errors.
Directional events10
Distinct sources2
Reviewed references14
Underlying assessments are not published.
They remain available to authorised reviewers with a complete audit history. Pending material never affects the signal.
PUBLIC RECORD
Mandate
history.
Dates and institutional evidence remain available after an officeholder leaves office.
Bundeskanzler
Official record ↗KEEP THE CONTEXT